±Recent Visitors

Recent Visitors to Com-Central!

±User Info-big


Welcome Anonymous

Nickname
Password

Membership:
Latest: DIEGO38
New Today: 0
New Yesterday: 0
Overall: 6597

People Online:
Members: 0
Visitors: 126
Total: 126
Who Is Where:
 Visitors:
01: Community Forums
02: News
03: Community Forums
04: Community Forums
05: Photo Gallery
06: Community Forums
07: Community Forums
08: Community Forums
09: Photo Gallery
10: Community Forums
11: Community Forums
12: Community Forums
13: Community Forums
14: Photo Gallery
15: Community Forums
16: Photo Gallery
17: Community Forums
18: Community Forums
19: Community Forums
20: Community Forums
21: Community Forums
22: Photo Gallery
23: Community Forums
24: Community Forums
25: Community Forums
26: Community Forums
27: Community Forums
28: Community Forums
29: Community Forums
30: Community Forums
31: Community Forums
32: Community Forums
33: Home
34: Community Forums
35: Community Forums
36: Community Forums
37: Community Forums
38: Home
39: Photo Gallery
40: Community Forums
41: Community Forums
42: Home
43: Community Forums
44: Community Forums
45: Community Forums
46: Home
47: Home
48: Photo Gallery
49: Community Forums
50: Home
51: Community Forums
52: Community Forums
53: Photo Gallery
54: Community Forums
55: Community Forums
56: Community Forums
57: Community Forums
58: Community Forums
59: Community Forums
60: Photo Gallery
61: Community Forums
62: Community Forums
63: Community Forums
64: Community Forums
65: Community Forums
66: Community Forums
67: Community Forums
68: Community Forums
69: Community Forums
70: Community Forums
71: Photo Gallery
72: Photo Gallery
73: Community Forums
74: Community Forums
75: Community Forums
76: Community Forums
77: Community Forums
78: Community Forums
79: Community Forums
80: Community Forums
81: Community Forums
82: Community Forums
83: Community Forums
84: Photo Gallery
85: Community Forums
86: Community Forums
87: Community Forums
88: Photo Gallery
89: Community Forums
90: Community Forums
91: Community Forums
92: Community Forums
93: Community Forums
94: Photo Gallery
95: Community Forums
96: Community Forums
97: Community Forums
98: Community Forums
99: Photo Gallery
100: Photo Gallery
101: Home
102: Photo Gallery
103: Community Forums
104: Community Forums
105: Community Forums
106: Community Forums
107: Community Forums
108: Community Forums
109: Home
110: Community Forums
111: Community Forums
112: Community Forums
113: Community Forums
114: Community Forums
115: Photo Gallery
116: Home
117: Community Forums
118: Community Forums
119: Community Forums
120: Community Forums
121: Photo Gallery
122: Photo Gallery
123: Home
124: Community Forums
125: Community Forums
126: Community Forums

Staff Online:

No staff members are online!
Did number crunching predict WWII German tank production?
The AFV ASSOCIATION was formed in 1964 to support the thoughts and research of all those interested in Armored Fighting Vehicles and related topics, such as AFV drawings. The emphasis has always been on sharing information and communicating with other members of similar interests; e.g. German armor, Japanese AFVs, or whatever.
Post new topic    Reply to topic    Printer Friendly Page     Forum Index ›  AFV News Discussion Board

View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
bsmart
Power User

Offline Offline
Joined: Jan 22, 2006
Posts: 2516
Location: Central Maryland
PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:21 am
Post subject: Did number crunching predict WWII German tank production?

This artcle cam across a WWII mailing list I'm on a few weeks back.
To me it seems like it is one of those made up 'truths' that tries to simplify a very complex process. Has anyone else seen this and can anyone definitly prove or disprove statements in it?

For example - Were Panthers sequentually serial numbered in a way that could be used in such a formula?




How a statistical formula won the war

Thursday July 20, 2006
The Guardian

Here is a story about mathematical deduction that I love, mainly
because it is said to be true, and because it had an impact (albeit
small) on the outcome of the second world war. It is the story of how
a simple statistical formula successfully estimated the number of
tanks the enemy was producing, at a time when this could not be
directly observed by the allied spy network.
By 1941-42, the allies knew that US and even British tanks had been
technically superior to German Panzer tanks in combat, but they were
worried about the capabilities of the new marks IV and V. More
troubling, they had really very little idea of how many tanks the
enemy was capable of producing in a year. Without this information,
they were unsure whether any invasion of the continent on the western
front could succeed.

One solution was to ask intelligence to guess the number by secretly
observing the output of German factories, or by trying to count tanks
on the battlefield. Both the British and the Americans tried this,
but they found that the estimates returned by intelligence were
contradictory and unreliable. Therefore they asked statistical
intelligence to see whether the accuracy of the estimates could be
improved.
The statisticians had one key piece of information, which was the
serial numbers on captured mark V tanks. The statisticians believed
that the Germans, being Germans, had logically numbered their tanks
in the order in which they were produced. And this deduction turned
out to be right. It was enough to enable them to make an estimate of
the total number of tanks that had been produced up to any given
moment.

The basic idea was that the highest serial number among the captured
tanks could be used to calculate the overall total. The German tanks
were numbered as follows: 1, 2, 3 ... N, where N was the desired
total number of tanks produced. Imagine that they had captured five
tanks, with serial numbers 20, 31, 43, 78 and 92. They now had a
sample of five, with a maximum serial number of 92. Call the sample
size S and the maximum serial number M. After some experimentation
with other series, the statisticians reckoned that a good estimator
of the number of tanks would probably be provided by the simple
equation (M-1)(S+1)/S. In the example given, this translates to (92-1) (5+1)/5, which is equal to 109.2. Therefore the estimate of tanks
produced at that time would be 109

By using this formula, statisticians reportedly estimated that the
Germans produced 246 tanks per month between June 1940 and September
1942. At that time, standard intelligence estimates had believed the
number was far, far higher, at around 1,400. After the war, the
allies captured German production records, showing that the true
number of tanks produced in those three years was 245 per month,
almost exactly what the statisticians had calculated, and less than
one fifth of what standard intelligence had thought likely.

Emboldened, the allies attacked the western front in 1944 and
overcame the Panzers on their way to Berlin. And so it was that
statisticians won the war - in their own estimation, at any rate.

_________________
Bob Smart ([email protected])
Back to top
View user's profile Send e-mail
Dirk
Power User

Offline Offline
Joined: Jan 23, 2006
Posts: 115
Location: South Africa
PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:30 am
Post subject: Re: Did number crunching predict WWII German tank production

David Kahn stated something similiar in hs book on German Military Intelligence during WWII.

Something to the effect of 5 by 8 inch ID plates being recovered from Russian tanks on the East front.

These plated gave the Serial number , Factory and date of production of the tank in question.

Cheers

Dirk

IIRC this is explained in the chapter titled 'The Military Economists'.
Back to top
View user's profile
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic    Reply to topic    Printer Friendly Page    Forum Index ›  AFV News Discussion Board
Page 1 of 1
All times are GMT - 6 Hours



Jump to:  


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum